Publication briefs
Publication type: Scientific Report
Author: Rui A. P. Perdigão
Date: 2021, October 21
Title: New Horizons of Predictability in Complex Dynamical Systems: From Fundamental Physics to Climate and Society
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46337/211021
Indexed: Yes (Crossref)
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Cite as
Perdigão, R.A.P. (2021): New Horizons of Predictability in Complex Dynamical Systems: From Fundamental Physics to Climate and Society. https://doi.org/10.46337/211021.
Keywords
Methodological Keywords: Information Physics, Information Theory, Complex Systems, Dynamical Systems, Mathematical Physics, Non-Ergodic, Chaos, Entropy, Emergence, Synergy, Coevolution, Causation.
Applied Keywords: Evolutionary Cognition, Big Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Earth System Dynamics, Hydrologic Dynamics, Hydrologic Analytics, Socio-Environmental Dynamics, Decision Support.
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A summarized version of this work was orally presented at the Lisbon Academy of Sciences on October 21st, 2021.
Abstract
Discerning the dynamics of complex systems in a mathematically rigorous and physically consistent manner is as fascinating as intimidating of a challenge, stirring deeply and intrinsically with the most fundamental Physics, while at the same time percolating through the deepest meanders of quotidian life.
The socio-natural coevolution in climate dynamics is an example of that, exhibiting a striking articulation between governing principles and free will, in a stochastic-dynamic resonance that goes way beyond a reductionist dichotomy between cosmos and chaos.
Subjacent to the conceptual and operational interdisciplinarity of that challenge, lies the simple formal elegance of a lingua franca for communication with Nature. This emerges from the innermost mathematical core of the Physics of Coevolutionary Complex Systems, articulating the wealth of insights and flavours from frontier natural, social and technical sciences in a coherent, integrated manner.
Communicating thus with Nature, we equip ourselves with formal tools to better appreciate and discern complexity, by deciphering a synergistic codex underlying its emergence and dynamics. Thereby opening new pathways to see the “invisible” and predict the “unpredictable” – including relative to emergent non-recurrent phenomena such as irreversible transformations and extreme geophysical events in a changing climate.
Frontier advances will be shared pertaining a dynamic that translates not only the formal, aesthetical and functional beauty of the Physics of Coevolutionary Complex Systems, but also enables and capacitates the analysis, modelling and decision support in crucial matters for the environment and society.
By taking our emerging Physics in an optic of operational empowerment, some of our pioneering advances will be addressed such as the intelligence system Earth System Dynamic Intelligence and the Meteoceanics QITES Constellation, at the interface between frontier non-linear dynamics and emerging quantum technologies, to take the pulse of our planet, including in the detection and early warning of extreme geophysical events from Space.